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Have I missed all the cheap fares for late spring?
julieste
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I know fares US to Europe rise considerably after mid to end of May.  We’ve got quite a bit of flexibility, both as to departure date and as to airport, and any time after May 15 will work out for us.  But, have I now missed the window of opportunity for those dates, and will I just see fares continuously rise the closer we get to the timeframe I am interested in?  In other years I have frequently found really good fares 3 to 4 weeks out for this time of year and early summer, but now I keep hearing that all the airlines are flying at full capacity.  Should I hold out a few more weeks thinking that airlines might try to dump seats as the time gets closer?  Or, in today’s market is the pattern now that prices are always only higher closer to departure dates? 
 
If it makes any difference, I fly out of MSP, which is notorious for higher fared due to NWA’s lock on the market.  And, what should I jump at this year as a benchmark of being a truly good fare for late May for a 2 week trip?
 
Another question.  We are also interested in Istanbul as a possibility, but all those fares seem to be at very minimum $1050.  Is this as good as it will ever get for IST?
 
I’m cheap!  The most I have ever paid for a ticket is $650 including in peak season.  But that is usually because we have some flexibility as to dates and destinations.

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Julie, ITASoftware has MSP-AMS on NW for $636 total for May 16-May 31.
Would that work for you?

Don
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That’s a very good fare to AMS. Between AMS and IST, www.whichbudget.com/… (also from DUS and FRA). Fuel surcharges are adding $130 or more to transatlantic airfares, so we’re seeing price rises at least that much—compared to fares in previous years.

I think you’re mostly right about timing the purchase, and importance of flexibility.

Icelandair are flying from MSP, and I’ve posted their spring and summer sales here. Check to see if it’s still on, and check for the threads here where I explain how to get 10% off their published fares. [updated: I checked for you; best is MSP-AMS 12th\30th 604 with reduction]

ITA turned up $696 to Copenhagen (SAS, connecting Dulles out, Chicago return) if that’s interesting. The 636 that Traveller found for you is the cheapest transatlantic flight from MSP that I see around that time.

julieste
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Thanks to both of you for the help.  While I would have preferred a destination further to the east, it might have to be the AMS flight.  I absolutely can’t leave before the 15-16th because of work commitments.  You think I should jump now then because it won’t get any better? 
 
Your piece of information about the $130 fuel surcharge also helps me.  I hadn’t realized that prices this year are that much higher due to fuel costs.

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I think this fare is your best bet—if basing at AMS works for you. It’s a sale fare, no doubt, so that means it will end, and seats can sell out at that fare before the sale ends, so I’d book today if that fare works for you. I don’t think you’ll do better. Like I said, I checked all of Europe from MSP for you, and the second-cheapest is 696 to CPH. From there, it goes way up, with fares further east tending to be closer to $1000 currently, for travel around that time.

I checked SNN;DUB;BFS;EDI;GLA;MAN;BHX;LPL;LON;BRS;OSL;CPH;STO;GOT;HEL;
KRK;WAWRG;VIE;ZRH;GVA;VCE;MIL;ROM;ATH;NCEAR;BRU;AMS;LIS;BCN;
MAD;DUS;HAM;CGN;FRA;STR;MUC;IST. Don’t worry, it’s easy with ITA software.